Fixed income delivered a broadly positive month as global yields edged lower.

Global Sovereigns

U.S. 10-year: –7 bps
Germany 10-year: –8 bps
UK 10-year: –29 bps
France 10-year: –11 bps

Monetary easing is underway but remains modest and uneven. Inflation is cooling across most developed markets, yet services inflation and housing costs remain sticky. Fiscal pressures—especially in the U.S. and UK—continue to exert upward pressure on long-term yields.

The intermediate segment of global curves offers the most attractive combination of carry and valuation support, though positioning in long-dated bonds requires caution given elevated issuance and quantitative tightening.

Investment Grade (IG)

IG credit performance was positive, though spreads remain historically tight.

EBITDA growth +4.1% YoY
IG net supply down ~18% YoY

Quality remains paramount: balance-sheet strength is increasingly differentiating winners from laggards. Most of the return outlook in IG is now driven by carry rather than spread compression.

High Yield (HY)

HY markets were stable despite an increasingly challenging backdrop.

Revenue growth +1.2% YoY
EBITDA ex-energy +2.0%

Spread per unit of leverage remains low (74 bps per turn)

Refinancing risk is rising for CCC-rated issuers, with a meaningful maturity wall in 2026. While the overall default cycle is not accelerating yet, vulnerabilities are building beneath the surface.