The Trump Presidency continues to create uncertainty and volatility for the global economy and markets, which unfortunately may continue for some time. The risk of a US and global recession remain; however, these risks have subsided recently. We believe the Fed will only intervene as and when necessary as it has the capacity to cut rates or could be more QE focussed.

The macro backdrop remains broadly supportive for equities, but some caution is required in the near term as ‘US exceptionalism’ is under threat with Europe/China embarking on fiscal expansion, and market leadership is likely to continue to change. This backdrop has been supportive of gold, and we could see the gold price continue to perform strongly, and commodity prices tick up if China stimulates aggressively.

We expect that China and US will agree an improved trade deal, which will be supportive of global equity prices, that tariffs will settle at much lower rates than threatened on 2 April ‘Liberation Day’, that the global economy accelerates as Europe and China go for growth and the US cuts taxes and some deregulation takes effect.

We will continue to monitor global and local political developments and inflation trends to guide our investment strategy, ensuring alignment with our long-term outlook.

We trust you have enjoyed and benefited from this report and please do not hesitate to contact Orion Investment Managers at: info@orionim.biz should you have any questions or queries.

Sincerely,

Adrian Meager
Orion Investment Managers
Managing Director and Chief Investment Officer