The Trump Presidency continues to create uncertainty and volatility for the global economy and markets, and this may continue for some time. The risk of a US and global recession is growing, and the Fed will only intervene as and when necessary, but may not actually cut rates and could rather be more QE focussed.

The macro backdrop remains supportive for equities, but some caution is required in the near term as ‘US exceptionalism’ is under threat with Europe/China embarking on fiscal expansion, and market leadership is likely to change. Given this backdrop, gold should continue to perform strongly, and we could see commodities pick up if China stimulates aggressively.

Positive surprises could be that China and US agree a trade deal, the Russia Ukraine war ends, tariffs settle at much lower rates and the global economy accelerates as Europe and China go for growth and US tax cuts and deregulation take effect.

We will continue to monitor global and local political developments and inflation trends to guide our investment strategy, ensuring alignment with our long-term outlook.

We trust you have enjoyed and benefited from this report and please do not hesitate to contact Orion Investment Managers at: info@orionim.biz should you have any questions or queries.

Sincerely,

Adrian Meager
Orion Investment Managers
Managing Director and Chief Investment Officer